Dan Boyle - by-elections should be held by the autumn or at a minimum in spring

From John Drennan in the Sunday Independent 20th June, 2010.

Taoiseach Brian Cowen's plans to see out the Government's full-term could be thwarted by his Green coalition colleagues. Close political allies of the Taoiseach have constantly stressed it is Mr Cowen's intention to "carry on until the last minute of the last hour of his mandate". This position is informed by the belief that time and the prospect of an economic revival is the only thing that can save Fianna Fail from an electoral humiliation.

However, comments by the high-profile Green Party chairman and senator, Dan Boyle, suggest the Greens will thwart this key strategic imperative. In a pointed snub to the Taoiseach, Mr Boyle told the Sunday Independent that when it comes to the next general election "there has to be an acceptance we are in a run-in period". "We have been in power for three years on Sunday, the average Irish administration lasts three and a half years and in the UK and America they have elections every four years. It is very important we have a budget this year for international confidence measures."

But after this, he said, there were no guarantees. "We will have shown our commitment to stable Government''.

Significantly, Mr Boyle also noted that the Greens believed the three pending by-elections should be held by the autumn or at a minimum in spring. Should Fianna Fail be defeated in these by-elections, political observers believe the Government's majority would, by that point, become so tenuous it would be impossible for them to carry on.

Mr Boyle's carefully worded comments are part of what appears to be a subtle Green Party-distancing act from their coalition partners. Although the party continues to be supportive of FF in public the private relationship between the parties was captured by the comment by one senior Green that "we know it's harsh but there's only so many bullets the Greens can take for FF before we move on".

The Greens' increasing independence is epitomised by the party's anxiety to ensure that Mr Cowen will be questioned by the Dail Finance Committee over his role in the banking crisis. It was initially believed the terms of reference of the Commission of Inquiry meant the Taoiseach would not face any public questioning over this deeply politically embarrassing affair. But top-level figures within the Green Party told the Sunday Independent it was their "expectation" that Mr Cowen would be questioned by the Dail Finance Committee which is investigating the cause of the banking crisis. The Greens' position is that the committee's investigations into the origins of the fiscal crisis "can and should bring in the main individuals". Responding to queries as to whether this should include the Taoiseach they said: "We are very anxious everybody who should be included will be included." However, the last thing the seriously embattled Taoiseach will want is further high-profile cross-examination of his role as Finance Minister during the evolution of the fiscal crisis. But Mr Boyle, in an indication of ongoing levels of mistrust between the parties, said of the Finance Committee's investigation that "if FF were on their own they'd revert to their natural inclination to kick to touch on such issues." The Green Party senator was clear that it was his expectation that Mr Cowen would be interviewed by the committee over the summer and that any attempt to evade this would not be well received.